$142,800 MRR, up 8.2% — the third straight month of accelerating growth. Expansion revenue ($14,200) now outpaces new business ($8,600). Maturity signal.

Unit economics hold: LTV:CAC of 4.2x, 9-month payback. Pro and Team cohorts from Q3–Q4 retain above 85% at month 6.

Churn ticked to 3.8%, up from 2.9%. The cause is specific: 8 of 12 churned accounts were Starter plan, all from the November cohort. Not a broad churn problem — a Starter onboarding problem. Fix the 60–90 day conversion window before that pattern repeats.

1. Expansion from Q3 cohorts. July–September accounts hit their natural expansion trigger — seat count and usage overages drove $14,200 in upgrade revenue. Q4 cohorts follow the same arc in May–June.

2. New logo velocity. 22 new accounts in February, up from 16 in January. Average ACV rose to $4,700, pushed by two Business-plan closes. Pipeline quality is improving, not just volume.

3. Contraction is contained. $6,500 contraction MRR from two accounts downsizing Team to Pro — both cited budget cycles, not product dissatisfaction. No churn signals since.

12 accounts churned in February, totalling $5,400 in lost MRR. 8 were Starter plan, 3 Pro, 1 Team. Pro and Team churn combined: 1.2%.

The Starter accounts signed in November, averaged 60–90 days of activity, then cancelled. That window maps to the end of the free-trial-equivalent period and the first renewal charge. They saw value during the trial but didn’t build a habit before the billing moment.

The fix is not pricing. Exit surveys from 6 of 8 churned accounts: they liked the product. The friction is activation depth. Users who connected 2+ data sources in their first 30 days retained at 94%. Users who connected one or zero: 41%. Get Starter users to data source #2 within 30 days.

The November Starter cohort is the problem. Not Starter as a whole, not every cohort — this one. Pro and Team hold above 85% at month 7. Starter collapses to 64% by month 3. The 36-point gap isn’t a pricing problem. Exit surveys say they liked the product.

The gap is activation depth. Users who connected 2+ data sources in 30 days retained at 94%. Users who connected one or zero: 41%. The retention curve bends at month 2–3 — that’s the billing moment. Get them to data source #2 before the first charge, and the curve stops collapsing.

4.2x LTV:CAC. Every dollar of CAC generates $4.20 in lifetime value. 9-month payback. These numbers are healthy — on the surface.

They’re blended. Starter LTV is shorter because higher churn truncates it. Starter LTV:CAC is worse than 4.2x. Pro and Team are better. The blended ratio hides a plan-level efficiency gap. Fix Starter retention and the blended LTV:CAC pushes toward 5x. Don’t fix it and the ratio degrades as Starter mix grows.

Lead with the acceleration. Three consecutive months above 7% growth. Expansion revenue now exceeds new logo MRR. Product-market fit signal, not just sales execution.

Own the churn. The 3.8% rate is a Starter problem, not a company problem. Pro and Team churn: 1.2%. Starter churn: 9.4%, cohort-specific (November). Root cause identified. Fix in progress: activation depth intervention targeting data source #2 within 30 days.

Unit economics anchor the story. LTV:CAC of 4.2x, 9-month payback, $142K MRR. Capital compounds at that ratio until you hit a market ceiling — and you’re nowhere near it.

The number to watch next month: Starter plan activation rate (% connecting 2+ data sources within 30 days). If the intervention works, it shows in April cohort data.

1. Launch a Starter activation intervention. Get users to data source #2 within 30 days. Target: move Starter activation from 41% to 60%+. If it works, Starter churn drops from 9.4% below 5%.

2. Monitor December and January Starter cohorts for the same pattern. If November was a one-off, the fix is contained. If it repeats, the onboarding flow has a structural gap.

3. Protect expansion revenue. Q3 cohorts are hitting their expansion triggers now. Account managers should reach out before the expansion happens naturally — proactive expansion converts at 2x reactive.

At current growth rate, MRR reaches $154.5K in March and $167.2K in April. That assumes expansion revenue keeps pace and new logo velocity stays above 20/month.

If the Starter intervention works: Activation on 2+ data sources climbs from 41% to 60%+. Starter churn drops from 9.4% below 5%. Overall churn falls back toward 2.5%. Growth trajectory holds.

If it doesn’t: The November cohort pattern repeats in December and January cohorts. Starter churn stays at 9.4%+. Overall churn holds at 3.5–4.0%. Churn drags 0.5–1.0pp off the growth rate each month. By April: ~$163K instead of ~$167K. Not catastrophic. It compounds.

Churn ceiling if the pattern repeats: At 3.8% monthly churn on $142.8K, you lose $5.4K/month. If newer cohorts follow the same arc, churn stays above 3.5% through Q2. Growth continues, but efficiency degrades. LTV:CAC drops from 4.2x toward 3.5x as churn shortens LTV.